Presidential candidate Donald Trump has been basking in US voters’ trust lately, with the latest proof being a whale betting nearly 3 Million in $USDC on Donald Trump’s Elections win on Polymarket.
Crypto intelligence platform, Lookonchain revealed, “ A whale withdrew 3M $USDC from #OKX to buy 4.48M “Yes” shares that #DonaldTrump will win the US election 8 hours ago.”
According to Polymarket, #DonaldTrump has a 63.9% chance of winning the presidential election.
A whale withdrew 3M $USDC from #OKX to buy 4.48M “Yes” shares that #DonaldTrump will win the US election 8 hours ago.https://t.co/ObYycj0Du9 pic.twitter.com/leN82607dt
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) October 25, 2024
Early today, Donald Trump’s presidential victory odds on Polymarket briefly went up to 99%, and low liquidity and short-term continuous purchases by some s triggered a temporary mispricing in the order book. A under the name, “GCorttell93” purchased more than 4.5 million Trump victory bets on the “2024 Presidential Election Winner” market, spending more than $3 million in just minutes. Due to the mechanism of the order book, a $275,000 purchase actually traded at 99% odds. However, the actual market odds were about 63% at the time.
It is worth mentioning, currently, the transaction volume of betting on the 2024 US Presidential Election Winner on Polymarket exceeds $2.2 billion, and Trump leads with a 63.7% chance of winning.
This voter confidence is a momentous increase from his earlier odds of 50% in September. As Trump continues to make strides in crucial battleground states his opponent Vice President Kamala Harris, who had been contesting him at 49% has seen her chances of victory plummet immensely. Currently, Harris has a 35.8% chance of winning according to Polymarket voters. The spike in indicates a shift in voter sentiment towards Trump.
On September 23rd a poll conducted by the New York Times and Siena College revealed that Trump is leading Harris in three vital states Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
On September 10, just a week before the current Trump favoritism began for the second run, the race seemed much more evenly matched. Trump was leading, though Polymarket voters were giving Trump a 50% chance of winning with Harris not far behind at just 49%. This was mostly the result of disappointment among investors as neither candidate spoke about cryptocurrency in the Presidential debate. Trump’s ability to keep his strong in battleground states has been crucial for his comeback even amid a tumultuous campaign. Trump’s core followers especially in conservative areas like Arizona and Georgia have stayed loyal giving him an advantage over Harris.
Whether the real election results would mirror the Polymarket votes is difficult to tell. As Trump now holds a commanding 63.7% his victory appears to be increasingly real. Meanwhile, Harris, who was once considered a formidable candidate will have to rethink her strategy to regain her momentum and secure the Democratic base as the election approaches on November 5th.
